Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling and Prediction -BAMP

Further information about the Bayesian age-period-cohort statistical model and its implementation in BAMP (Bayesian Age-period-cohort Modelling and Prediction) software

Multivariate Age-Period-Cohort Models

Age-period-cohort (APC) models are used to analyse age-specific disease or mortality rates provided for several periods in time with respect to three time scales: age, period (calendar period during which the incidence or mortality rates were observed) and cohort (time of birth). Frequently, several sets of such age-specific rates are observed because data were recorded according to one further...

The unrealized potential: cohort effects and age-period-cohort analysis

This study aims to provide a systematical introduction of age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to South Korean readers who are unfamiliar with this method (we provide an extended version of this study in Korean). As health data in South Korea has substantially accumulated, population-level studies that explore long-term trends of health status and health inequalities and identify macrosocial determ...

Forecasting with the age-period-cohort model?

Future pension liabilities depend critically on the life expectancy of the members of a pension scheme. This remark applies equally to public and private schemes, and to defined-benefit and defined-contribution schemes. Some pension providers use the age-period-cohort model to forecast mortality. We examine some of the pitfalls in this approach. Our methods are based on the theory of constraine...

Deviance analysis of age-period-cohort models

Age-period-cohort models for Lexis diagrams are considered. The identification problem is addressed by reparametrizing the models in terms of freely varying parameters. The reparametrisation covers all three Lexis diagrams. A new plot of the unidentified time effects is suggested and interpreted. Deviance analysis covering a wide range of sub-models is presented. The methods are applied to Belg...